Abstract Detail



Ecology

Feldsine, Natalie [1].

Potential phenological shifts of first bloom dates in southern New York: using long-term phenology data to understand local effects of climate change.

As spring temperatures are increasing progressively early in the season, environmentally sensitive events such as songbird migration and emergence of spring flora have been shifting to occur at earlier dates than historically observed. As these spring events are important for many other migrating and emerging species, it is important to study phenology events so as to better understand ecological relationships. Mohonk Preserve’s Daniel Smiley Research Center (DSRC) maintains a unique long-term and strongly place-based dataset of phenology events including first bloom dates and songbird first arrival dates. These data were collected at specific locations and along established routes starting in 1913 and continuing through present day. This case study examines the usefulness of such a long-term dataset in evaluating local plant responses to climate change. The goal of this study was to determine if early spring-flowering species first bloom dates had shifted to earlier dates in a localized area. Kruskal-Wallis analyses of variance tests were used to determine significance of change in first bloom date for each selected species. Species chosen for observation included spring ephemerals (Anemone americana, Anemone quinquefolia, Erythronium americanum, Panax trifolius, Sanguinaria canadensis, Trillium erectum, Tussilago farfara) and flowering trees (Acer rubrum, Amelanchier arborea, Prunus serotina). Although DSRC phenology observations have been recorded for over 300 flora species, the subset examined here are among the most continuously observed. As expected, spring ephemerals experienced the greatest change in first bloom dates. These preliminary analyses show promise that our dataset can be valuable at determining local phenology changes, however more robust analyses with other variables are necessary to fully understand complete impacts on regional phenology events. Next steps include analyzing potential correlations with monthly average temperatures from the Mohonk Lake Cooperative Weather Station, which has maintained continuous daily weather readings since 1896, examining if wetland species are experiencing similar shifts in first bloom dates, and comparing our local data to those collected on a broader geographical scale, such as that of the National Phenology Network.


Related Links:
History of Conservation Science at Mohonk Preserve


1 - Mohonk Preserve, Conservation Science, PO Box 715, New Paltz, NY, 12561, United States

Keywords:
phenology
spring ephemeral
climate
historical data.

Presentation Type: Oral Paper
Number: 0010
Abstract ID:403
Candidate for Awards:None


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